In prediction markets, your edge is your statistical advantage over the current market price. An edge score quantifies this advantage into a single actionable number.
The Simple Definition
An edge score tells you: based on current live data, does one side of this market appear to be underpriced relative to the other?
Polyscout AI's edge score ranges from -100 to +100:
- +50 to +100: Strong YES-side edge. The live data suggests YES may be underpriced.
- +20 to +50: Moderate YES edge. Worth monitoring or cautiously entering.
- -20 to +20: No clear edge. Market appears fairly priced.
- -20 to -50: Moderate NO edge. NO side may be underpriced.
- -50 to -100: Strong NO-side edge.
The 4 Signals That Make Up the Score
1. Price Divergence (40% weight)
If your screenshot shows YES at 65c but live Polymarket has YES at 72c, the market moved 7 points in your favor. This is positive price divergence.
2. Order Book Imbalance (30% weight)
The order book shows how many buyers vs sellers are waiting. If YES bids are 3x deeper than NO asks, buyers are more aggressive — a bullish signal.
3. 24h Momentum (20% weight)
If the price has been trending up over the last 24 hours, that momentum often continues short-term. Trend-following is a known edge in prediction markets.
4. Volume Trend (10% weight)
Above-average trading volume indicates increased conviction. Thin volume markets can reverse quickly.
How to Act on the Edge Score
A score above +30 or below -30 is generally worth examining. Always combine the edge score with your own fundamental knowledge of the event. The score identifies when to look harder, not what to decide.
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