Most prediction market bettors lose money not because they are bad forecasters, but because they make avoidable structural mistakes.
Mistake #1: Treating Every Market as Binary Risk
A 95c YES bet loses 5x less than it gains on win, but beginners don't account for this asymmetry. Always calculate expected value.
Mistake #2: Ignoring Liquidity
A market with only $2,000 in volume can swing wildly on a single large order. Always check total market liquidity before entering.
Mistake #3: Anchoring on the Screenshot Price
Markets move in real time. Your entry price may have already moved past your edge by the time you place the bet.
Mistake #4: No Stop-Loss Discipline
Define your bail price before you enter. Polyscout AI's Game Plan section gives you a pre-calculated exit and bail price automatically.
Mistake #5: Over-concentrating Into Single Markets
Even 90% confidence bets lose 10% of the time. Spread across 5-10 different markets to smooth variance.
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