Prediction markets like Polymarket let anyone trade on the probability of real-world events. But reading a market correctly takes more than glancing at the current price.
1. The Price Is a Probability, Not a Score
When you see a market at 72c, the crowd believes there is roughly a 72% probability the event resolves YES. Your edge comes from disagreeing with the crowd in an informed way.
2. Check Volume First
High-volume markets (>$500K) are efficient. Low-volume niche markets often misprice events. Look for markets where you have information others lack.
3. Watch the Order Book
If YES bids are stacked much deeper than NO bids, the crowd is bullish. Thin NO asks means YES buyers can't fill orders, and prices will typically rise.
4. Track Price Movement vs. News
If the price hasn't moved after major news, either the market is slow to update (opportunity) or the market knew first (danger).
5. Use Polyscout AI for Instant Signal
Polyscout AI analyzes your screenshot and computes a composite edge score across price divergence, order book imbalance, volume trends, and momentum in seconds.
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